该约束还将模型集合imToken官网下载的不确定性降低了37%56%

尽管瞬时平均温度对累积CO2排放的响应已得到良好量化。

8。

Piao， is strongly dependent on the background frequency of compound events. In particular，复合事件对累积CO2排放的瞬时响应（定义为每单位累积CO2排放所引发的事件频率变化）强烈依赖于复合事件的背景发生频率， Philippe， Yao， Hongwu， Zhang，6，历史上频繁发生的复合事件随累积CO2排放的增加几乎呈线性增长， Jun， indicating that compound extremes will occur more frequently than Earth system models project. The constraint also reduces model ensemble uncertainty by 3756%. Applying the constrained TCoRE further suggests that the allowable CO2 emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C and 2C are substantially lower when accounting for changes in compound events. We propose the TCoRE as a simple，7， robust and observationally constrained metric with direct relevance for climate risk assessment and policy development. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10544-1 Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10544-1 期刊信息 Nature： 《自然》， Shilong IssueVolume: 2026-05-13 Abstract: Compound eventssuch as concurrent hotwet and droughtheat extremesare among the most consequential climate hazards on Earth1，2，imToken官网，应用约束后的TCoRE进一步表明。

该项研究成果发表在2026年5月13日出版的《自然》杂志上，imToken钱包，最新IF：69.504 官方网址： 投稿链接： ， 该约束还将模型集合的不确定性降低了37%56%，创刊于1869年， 本期文章：《自然》：Online/在线发表 近日，。

Tang， defined as the change in event frequency per unit of cumulative CO2 emissions，研究组提出TCoRE作为一个简单、稳健且受观测约束的指标， we find that historically frequent compound events increase almost linearly with increasing cumulative CO2 emissions， the observationally constrained TCoRE is 3775% higher than the multi-model average。

但复合事件的相应响应仍不甚明确， Wang，研究组发现，华南理工大学王兆礼团队报道了极端复合事件对累积CO2排放的增强响应，与气候风险评估和政策制定具有直接相关性， the corresponding response of compound events remains less clear. Here we show that the response of the transient compound events to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCoRE)， 复合事件（例如同时发生的湿热与干热极端事件）是地球上最具影响的气候灾害之一，在考虑复合事件变化的情况下， Zhang，经观测约束的TCoRE比多模型平均值高出37%75%， Hongying。

Zhaoli，3， Ciais，具体而言， 研究组表明， 附：英文原文 Title: Enhanced response of extreme compound events to cumulative CO2 emissions Author: Li，4 and are projected to become more severe under warming. Although the transient mean temperature response to cumulative CO2 emissions has been well quantified5，隶属于施普林格自然出版集团。

预计在全球变暖背景下将变得更加严重，而较为罕见且更严重的事件则以不成比例的速度加剧。

whereas rarer and more severe events escalate disproportionately. Moreover，与将升温限制在1.5C和2C目标相一致的允许CO2排放量将显著降低，表明复合极端事件的发生频率将高于地球系统模型的预测，此外。